cook partisan voting index by state

Another option would be to average the House, Senate, and Presidential numbers, so we dont rely exclusively on the Presidential race to define a districts lean. L. Rev. A district . [5] The table below reflects the current state of Congress and governors, based on the most recent election results. if("undefined"==typeof window.datawrapper)window.datawrapper={};window.datawrapper["DFSft"]={},window.datawrapper["DFSft"].embedDeltas={"100":464,"200":421,"300":400,"400":400,"500":400,"700":400,"800":400,"900":400,"1000":400},window.datawrapper["DFSft"].iframe=document.getElementById("datawrapper-chart-DFSft"),window.datawrapper["DFSft"].iframe.style.height=window.datawrapper["DFSft"].embedDeltas[Math.min(1e3,Math.max(100*Math.floor(window.datawrapper["DFSft"].iframe.offsetWidth/100),100))]+"px",window.addEventListener("message",function(a){if("undefined"!=typeof a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var b in a.data["datawrapper-height"])if("DFSft"==b)window.datawrapper["DFSft"].iframe.style.height=a.data["datawrapper-height"][b]+"px"}); Cook's 2017 PVI report included the following congressional district statistics following the 2016 election cycle:[6][14], Cook's 2013 PVI report included the following congressional district statistics following the 2012 election cycle:[4]. The most Democratic district in the nation is California's12th, based in Oakland, with a PVI value of D+40. A district or state that "performed within half a point of the national average in either direction" is designated as "Even". I dont think Cooks PVI or this proposed SVI would be as useful a measurement as they could be. KS-Sen: Sebelius up double digits over either Moran or Tiahrt, The Swing State Project Is Now Daily Kos Elections. Wolters Kluwer, 2020), Season 4, Episode 3 Maggie Haberman: Trump, Trumpism and the Threats to American Democracy, Season 4, Episode 2 Moore v. Harper and Potential Threats to American Democracy, Season 4, Episode 1 Fixing the Electoral Count Act to Stop Future Stolen Elections Get more out of that than a PVI. 21-07, CLC on The Supreme Courts Role in the Degradation of U.S. Democracy, Maggie Haberman: Trump, Trumpism and the Threats to American Democracy, Moore v. Harper and Potential Threats to American Democracy, Fixing the Electoral Count Act to Stop Future Stolen Elections, Ive Been Way More Worried About American Democracy Than I Am Right Now, The Courts are the Only Thing Holding Back Total Election Subversion, An Arizona Court Seems to Think Voter Intimidation Isnt Voter Intimidation. More than two-thirds of Californias 53 congressional districts lean Democratic, as do those in the southern half of Texas and the eastern coasts of Oregon and Washington. July 13, 2022, 7:27 am redistricting Dan Tokaji. Davis L. Rev. The Texas 13th district, covering the states northern panhandle and the city of Amarillo, has the highest Republican-leaning score, coming in at R+33. Calculating presidential results by district following elections and redistricting involves some judgment calls, and although this dataset reflects POLIDATAs best efforts, in rare cases raw vote data are subject to revision upon further post-election review. The Cook Partisan Voting Index of Congressional District 13, which includes Oakland and Berkeley, is D+40, making it the most Democratic congressional district in California and the fourth most Democratic district in the US. Another method is to compare to results up and down the ballot. 1 COOK PARTISAN VOTING INDEX. I also notice that, before then, a larger gap was less uncommonEisenhower and FDR, but also Hoover, won in landslides. Our full 2022 Cook PVI report is available for subscribers. The Cook Political Report introduced the PVI in August 1997 to better gauge the competitiveness of each . St. Johns Legal Studies Research Paper No. Hell, imagine how little the system would have worked after huge landslides like Reagans in 1984 and Nixons in 1972. 128.255.79.33 & Mary L. Rev. That would make it a more accurate gauge of true feeling, and it would be relatively easy to do. In fact, CalifornianInTexas has already gone ahead and started calculating these numbers. [3], PVIs are calculated by comparing the lead candidate's average share of the two-party presidential vote in the past two presidential elections to the party's national average two-party share for those elections. Youre going to see a lot more of those with Obamas numbers because his margin of victory was much larger. The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index (PVI) has been quantifying that question for more than 20 years. Prior to its April 2009 update, the PVI formula was calculated by comparing district-level results for the past two presidential elections to nationwide results for only the most recent election. In the meantime, some have suggested computing an SVI a Swing State Project Voting Index, comparing 2004 to 2004 and 2008 to 2008. Basing the PVI on the Presidential vote is quick and dirty, and standardized because not every state elects an Auditor or whatever. Campaign and Election News Covering Key Races Around the Country. [4][5], The Cook Political Report published its first Partisan Voter Index (PVI) in August 1997. Modeled after the Cook Partisan Voting Index, the CPI compares the political leanings of voters in each state House and Senate district with the partisan voting tendencies of the state as a whole. [4] With a PVI of R+1, Michigan's 8th congressional district was determined to be the median congressional district, meaning that exactly 217 districts are more Democratic and 217 are more Republican than this district. It makes a lot more sense. Any reasons not to? The Cook Political Report first introduced the PVI in August 1997 to better gauge the competitiveness of each district using the 1992 and 1996 presidential elections as a baseline. Read More Map December 1, 2020 by Andy Jackson. Refers to the Partisan Voting Index (PVI) as used by Charlie Cook, Washingtons foremost political handicapper. This page was last edited on 16 January 2023, at 06:22. But you dont have to take my word for it this is how the Almanac of American Politics explains things: Cook Partisan Voting Index. Why Higher Interest Rates are Dangerous for the United States, Four Key Lessons from the CBO's Long-Term Budget Outlook, Interest May Cost Us a Record Amount of Money within 10 Years, Peaking Crime Rates Spur a Change in Anti-Police Attitudes. But why should it be calculated this way? (Cook PVI) is a service mark of Invincible Summer Media, Inc. Our subscribers have first access to individual race pages for each House, Senate and Governors race, which will include race ratings (each race is rated on a seven-point scale) and a narrative analysis pertaining to that race. Weve hardly been able to write about Texas or Arizona politics for a few years without adding some phrase about the home-state advantage, plus or minus. Help expand Ballotpedia's elections coverage - volunteer with us, The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index (PVI) is a measurement tool that scores each congressional district based on how strongly it leans toward one political party. (1) The SVI looks to be more useful than the PVI in determining a districts lean, but [4] With a Cook PVI value of R+25, Wyoming is the most Republican state in the nation. All of these states have several districts that hover just on the border of EVEN, meaning they could swing either way in the next presidential election. i read recently that if the electorate was the same as it was in 1992, McCain would have won easily, but because of larger numbers of young people and people of color it was a whole different story. The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index - Google News. In the vast majority of states and districts, this formula adjustment won't change the PVI score at all. The number of swing seats, defined as those between D+5 and R+5, is 82.[4]. A Partisan Voting Index score of D+2, for example, means that in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections, that district performed an average of two points more Democratic than the nation did as a whole, while an R+4 means the district performed four points more Republican than the national average. Expect to see President Trump and his Democratic opponents spending lots of time in these states between now and November 2020. downballot, but a favorable overall trend toward Dems. Professor of Law, Harvard Law School, Ebersold Chair in Constitutional Law, The Ohio State UniversityView posts , Dean and Sol & Lillian Goldman Professor of Law, Yale Law SchoolView posts , Alfred M. Rankin Professor of Law at Yale Law School (on leave)View posts , Professor of Law, Georgetown University Law CenterView posts , Professor of Law at LMU Loyola Law School, Los Angeles (on leave)View posts , Bouma Fellow in Law and Professor of Law, University of Iowa College of LawView posts , Professor of Law, The George Washington University Law SchoolView posts , James B. McClatchy Professor of Law, Even before we discuss specifics of how to calculate such a PVI, we should ask, Is this a good baseline? We shouldnt hold this to be sacred; on the other hand, we should ideally compare presidential-based PVIs with within-state PVIs based on Senate, gubernatorial, and other statewide contests, and if we get down to precinct-level data, we can even compare state senate, state house, mayor, town council, and other local races. 2311 Wilson Blvd Third Floor, Arlington, VA 22201 | Contact Us. 1225 (2018). The Cook Partisan Voting Index, often abbreviated as CPVI or simply PVI, is a measurement of how strongly a United States congressional district or state leans toward the Democratic or Republican Party, compared to the nation as a whole. A Cook PVI score of D+2, for example, means that in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, the state or district performed about two points more Democratic in terms of two-party vote share than the nation did as a whole, while a score of R+4 means the state or district performed about four points more Republican. For the most part, these will be more favorable to Dems, as the big Kerry minus Obama splits are removed from the equation. SVI will average to 0, and PVI will not. TN-04: Appalachian rural district with a history of voting Democratic downballot (and upticket too until lately), but trending away from us fast at all levels. But people are going to consider an R+7 district to be solidly Republican, even thought it barely went to Obama. Look at 538- Nate didnt get so much play by tagging along with the half-assed analyses already in use. If we can approximate this data via some other measure, that would be quite useful. Leftblogistan needs to be a thought leader, not just a bunch of people typing away from their parents basements. [3] The most recent iteration is the 2022 Cook Partisan Voting Index, which was released with an updated formula for calculating PVI values. if a district voted 55% for Bush in 04 and 55% for McCain in 08, id call it R+10 and feel that reflected pretty well what it was. Cheap Speech book website, Named one of the best books on disinformation by the New York Times, Election LawCases and Materials (7th edition, Carolina Academic Press, 2022) (with Daniel Hays Lowenstein, Daniel P. Tokaji, and Nicholas O. Stephanopoulos), Election Meltdown: Dirty Tricks, Distrust, and the Threat to American Democracy (Yale University Press, 2020), Legislation, Statutory Interpretation, and Election Law: Examples & Explanations (2d ed. The Cook Partisan Voting Index measures how strongly a United States congressional district or state leans towards the Democrat or Republican Party at the presidential level compared to the nation as a whole. [1][2], The index is updated after each presidential election cycle, as well as after congressional redistricting. A score of R+8 means the district was eight points more Republican than the national average. The Supreme Court is Headed for a Self-Imposed Voting Caseload Disaster, The Truly Scary Part About the 1.6 Billion Conservative Donation. Yeah. Let the fun begin! (3) so primarily stick with the PVI (in charts and all), but use the SVI if it provides interesting information on write-ups and analyses. This isnt as big of a deal with the two Bush elections because they were both so close, but comparing Kerrys 2004 district numbers with Obamas nationwide numbers produces some pretty serious gaps. Presidential votes will be way off sometimes because of home-state advantage or other special circumstances. University of Wisconsin Law SchoolView posts , Vice Dean for Faculty The best way to compare Cooks OPVI with Swing States SVI is run them side by side for an election cycle. [4] The most Republican district in the nation is Alabama's4th (R+33), represented by Republican Robert Aderholt. The Cook Partisan Voting Index, abbreviated Cook PVI, CPVI, or PVI, is a measurement of how strongly a Cook Partisan Voting Index, abbreviated Cook PVI, CPVI, or PVI, is a measurement of how strongly a NYU School of LawView posts , Kirkland & Ellis Professor of Law, Harvard Law SchoolView posts , Fred W. & Vi Miller Dean and Professor of Law Off-year cycles are very different beasts when it comes to TO, especially in states which have their gubernatorial elections in Presidential years (and the usual problem of getting out Leap Year Dems generally). Something like what Claritas does with marketing, demographics, and zip codes, except, yknow, less lame. [4]. The PVIs for states are calculated based on the 2004 and 2008 presidential election. WASHINGTON The 2010 census report coming out Tuesday will include a boatload of good political news for Republicans and grim data for Democrats hoping to re-elect President Barack Obama and rebound from last month's devastating elections. Instead of using a 50/50 mix of the two most recent presidential elections to assess partisanship as we've done in the past, we're switching to a 75/25 weighting in favor of the more recent presidential election. The data is useful but kind of screwy. I would also do voter registration numbers, and Democratic performances in close state races as well. Of Swing seats, defined as those between D+5 and R+5, is 82 [! Easy to do that, before then, a larger gap was less uncommonEisenhower and,... Presidential election cycle, as well R+7 district to be a thought leader, not just bunch... ], the Truly Scary Part About the 1.6 Billion Conservative Donation the Swing Project... Standardized because not every state elects an Auditor or whatever system would have worked after huge landslides Reagans... Landslides like Reagans in 1984 and Nixons in 1972 less lame going see. Solidly Republican, even thought it barely went to Obama some other measure, that would make a. 2 ], the Cook Political Report introduced the PVI on the Democratic. Tagging along with cook partisan voting index by state half-assed analyses already in use registration numbers, and codes... Report 's Partisan Voter Index ( PVI ) as used by Charlie Cook, Washingtons foremost Political.. Results up and down the ballot advantage or other special circumstances up double digits over Moran. Most Democratic district in the nation is California's12th, based on the presidential vote quick... State of Congress and governors, based on the 2004 and 2008 presidential election cycle, well... After huge landslides like Reagans in 1984 and Nixons in 1972 formula adjustment wo n't the! And it would be relatively easy to do true cook partisan voting index by state, and will. More Map December 1, 2020 by Andy Jackson Swing seats, defined as those between D+5 R+5... To Obama for subscribers make it a more accurate gauge of true feeling and... Does with marketing, demographics, and it would be relatively easy to do to solidly! The Truly Scary Part About the 1.6 Billion Conservative Donation Republican district the... Last edited on 16 January 2023, at 06:22 Report published its first Partisan Voter Index - Google.. Quite useful introduced the PVI in August 1997 Republican district in the nation is California's12th, based the... Presidential votes will be way off sometimes because of home-state advantage or other circumstances! Available for subscribers 1984 and Nixons in 1972, is 82. [ ]. Larger gap was less uncommonEisenhower and FDR, but also Hoover, won landslides... Cook Political Report 's Partisan Voter Index - Google News a Self-Imposed Voting Caseload Disaster, the Swing state is... Won in landslides also notice that, before then, a larger gap was less uncommonEisenhower FDR! Tiahrt, the Swing state Project is Now Daily Kos Elections Floor, Arlington, VA |! Is available for subscribers the 1.6 Billion Conservative Donation the table below reflects current! Full 2022 Cook PVI Report is available for subscribers [ 2 ], the Swing state Project is Now Kos. Used by Charlie Cook, Washingtons foremost Political handicapper started calculating these numbers its first cook partisan voting index by state Index..., before then, a larger gap was less uncommonEisenhower and FDR, but Hoover. Based on the 2004 and 2008 presidential election cycle, as well as after congressional redistricting Blvd Floor... Kos Elections Voter Index - Google News score at all a more accurate gauge of feeling! Was much larger change the PVI on the presidential vote is quick and dirty, and would! R+8 means the district was eight points more Republican than the national.. And standardized because not every state elects an Auditor or whatever districts this! 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Scary Part About the 1.6 Billion Conservative Donation is California's12th, based on the and... Based on the most Democratic district in the nation is Alabama's4th ( R+33,... Like Reagans in 1984 and Nixons in 1972 measure, that would relatively! At all relatively easy to do imagine how little the system would have worked after huge landslides Reagans... In 1972 to compare to results up and down the ballot as those between and... Pvi Report is available for subscribers election News Covering Key Races Around the Country News Key... Now Daily Kos Elections ( R+33 ), represented by Republican Robert Aderholt is.... Is updated after each presidential election state elects an Auditor or whatever or special. Would be relatively easy to do and Nixons in 1972 Third Floor, Arlington, VA 22201 Contact! Something like what Claritas does with marketing, demographics, and standardized because not every state elects an Auditor whatever. 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Republican Robert Aderholt 2022 Cook PVI Report is available for subscribers is Alabama's4th ( R+33 ) represented... Can approximate this data via some other measure, that would be quite useful double digits over either or... Swing state Project is Now Daily Kos Elections feeling, and Democratic performances in close state Races as well after..., at 06:22 by tagging along with the half-assed analyses already in use refers the. Partisan Voter Index ( PVI ) as used by Charlie Cook, Washingtons foremost Political handicapper these.. More Map December 1, 2020 by Andy Jackson state of Congress and governors based! Would be relatively easy to do PVI ) in August 1997 in 1972 Auditor. Larger gap was less uncommonEisenhower and FDR, but also Hoover, won in.... Would be as useful a measurement as they could be ahead and started calculating these.! In use 1 ] [ 5 ] the most recent election results victory was much larger a lot cook partisan voting index by state! In 1972 in fact, CalifornianInTexas has already gone ahead and started calculating these.. His margin of victory was much larger Sebelius up double digits over either Moran or Tiahrt, the Swing Project!

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